Crypto prediction markets explained: how yes/no shares pay $1

A crypto prediction market lets you buy 'yes' or 'no' shares on a question with a clear answer, such as whether Bitcoin will trade above a set price on a set date. If your side turns out right, each share pays $1; if it turns out wrong, it pays nothing. The price of a share in between is the crowd's live estimate of how likely the outcome is, so a yes share at 40 cents means the market sees about a 40% chance.

That is the whole idea, and it is why prediction markets are easier to reason about than most crypto products. There is no leverage to manage and no liquidation price. You know your maximum loss the moment you buy, and you know your maximum payout too. On sasa, these markets live at /predict/ and cover yes/no questions on prices, matches and rates, inside the same account you use for meme coins and futures.

How does a crypto prediction market work?

Every market is built around one question with two possible answers. The question has an end time and a rule that says exactly how the answer is decided. Until the end time, people buy and sell shares in each answer. When the end time arrives, the market resolves: shares in the correct answer are worth $1 each and shares in the wrong answer are worth $0.

The parts you should look at on any market are the same everywhere:

• The question, worded precisely. 'Will BTC be above $X at a set time' is not the same as 'Will BTC touch $X before a date'.
• The resolution rule: which price source, which time, which time zone. Most disputes come from people who read the question but not the rule.
• The end time, which tells you how long your money is tied up.
• The current yes price and no price. Together they sit close to $1, because exactly one of the two answers will pay $1.
• How much trading there is. A market with little activity can have a wide gap between the price you can buy at and the price you can sell at.

Why is the share price a probability?

Think about what a yes share is worth to someone who is certain the answer is yes: $1. To someone certain it is no: nothing. To someone who thinks it is a coin flip: about 50 cents. When thousands of people with different views trade, the price settles where buyers and sellers balance, and that price is a reasonable reading of the average belief in the room.

This is why you read a 0.62 yes price as 'the market thinks this is about 62% likely'. It is not a guarantee and it is not always right. Crowds can be wrong, especially on fast-moving crypto prices, and a thin market can be pushed around by one large order. But it gives you a number to compare with your own estimate, and that comparison is where every sensible prediction trade starts.

Worked example: a yes/no trade on a Bitcoin price question

Example (illustrative numbers, not a live market): the question is 'Will Bitcoin close above a set price on Friday?'. The yes share trades at $0.35 and the no share at about $0.65.

1. You think the market is too pessimistic. You estimate the chance at closer to 50%.
2. You buy 100 yes shares at $0.35. Your cost is $35.
3. If Bitcoin closes above the price on Friday, the market resolves yes. Your 100 shares pay $1 each, so you receive $100. Your profit is $100 minus $35, which is $65.
4. If Bitcoin closes below the price, the market resolves no. Your shares pay $0 and you lose the $35 you paid. You cannot lose more than that.

Now flip it. Someone who bought 100 no shares at $0.65 paid $65. If the answer is no, they receive $100 and make $35. If the answer is yes, they lose $65. The cheaper side has the larger possible return because the market thinks it is less likely. Neither side is a better deal by default; it depends entirely on whether the price is wrong.

A simple way to judge any trade: your expected value per share is your probability times $1, minus the price. In the example, if your 50% estimate is right, a $0.35 yes share is worth about $0.50 to you, an expected gain of about 15 cents per share. If your estimate is really 35%, there is no expected gain at all.

What can you bet on in a prediction market?

Crypto prediction markets usually cover three kinds of questions, and sasa's markets follow the same split:

• Prices: whether a coin like Bitcoin, Ethereum or Solana will be above or below a level at a set time.
• Matches: the result of a sports match or another contest with a clear winner.
• Rates: whether a rate, such as a central bank decision, comes in above, below or at a level.

Price questions are the ones most crypto traders start with, because you already follow those charts. Before you trade one, it helps to know where the mood of the market sits. The Data tab shows the Crypto Fear & Greed reading, big trades on major coins and funding rates, and the Fear & Greed index guide explains how to read the first of those without overreacting to it.

Prediction markets vs futures: which fits your view?

Both let you take a view on where a price goes, but they reward different kinds of views.

• A prediction share pays a fixed $1 if you are right, no matter by how much. Bitcoin finishing $1 above the line pays the same as finishing $5,000 above it.
• A futures position pays more the further the price moves your way, and loses more the further it moves against you. With leverage, a move against you can close the position early.
• A prediction share has a known maximum loss: what you paid. A leveraged futures position can lose its full margin well before the date you had in mind.
• Futures can stay open as long as you keep them funded; a prediction market ends at a fixed time.

If your view is 'Bitcoin finishes the week above this level', a prediction market expresses it cleanly. If your view is 'Solana is about to drop hard and I want to profit from the size of the move', futures fit better, and how to short a crypto coin with futures walks through that. Futures traders also watch funding rates and open interest, which can be useful context for price questions too.

How to read the odds before you buy

1. Read the resolution rule twice. Confirm the source, the exact time and what counts as 'above'.
2. Write down your own probability before you look at the price, so the market number does not anchor you.
3. Compare the two. Only act if the gap is large enough to survive being somewhat wrong.
4. Check the gap between the buy and sell price. On a quiet market, buying and selling straight back can cost you several cents per share.
5. Size the trade as money you can lose in full, because a single market either pays or does not.

Can you sell prediction shares before the market ends?

In most prediction markets, yes: shares keep trading until the end time, so you can sell to another trader at the current price. This matters because prices move as news arrives. If you bought yes at $0.35 and the price climbs to $0.70 two days later, selling locks in a gain without waiting for the answer. If the price falls to $0.15, selling limits the loss to the difference. Holding to the end means accepting the full $1 or $0 outcome.

What are the risks of prediction markets?

• You can lose the full amount you paid for a share. Cheap shares on unlikely outcomes lose most of the time.
• Short-dated price questions are close to a coin flip with a spread on top. Frequent small bets on them tend to lose money slowly.
• Misreading the question or the rule is the most common avoidable loss.
• Thin markets can show prices that one large order moved, not a real consensus.
• Availability depends on where you live. sasa's prediction markets are not available in some countries, including the US and Turkey.

How to start with prediction markets on sasa

Open /predict/, pick a question, read its rule, choose yes or no and enter the amount. Your sasa account holds one USDC balance (sasa calls it Cash); if you have not added USDC yet, trading on several chains from one balance explains how deposits land in Cash. When a market resolves in your favour, each share pays $1.